I went off on a friend (by now, probably an ex-friend) on Facebook about her unreasonable, unbreakable support for Trump. I had made the argument that Trump's actions and inaction increased deaths from Covid-19. In particular, I argued (see if there's a flaw here, I don't think so):
- The more widespread the Covid-19 virus becomes, the more people will catch it.
- The more people that catch Covid-19, the more people will die from it.
- Actions such as self-isolating, social distancing, and mask-wearing slow the spread of Covid-19.
- Trump spent months and months downplaying Covid-19 and affirmatively encouraging his supporters not to wear masks or self-isolate (e.g., "LIBERATE MICHIGAN!" and the largely mask-free Tulsa rally).
- Trump's supporters followed his lead, and fewer of them wore masks, practiced social distancing, or self-isolated as a result of Trump's encouragement than would otherwise have been the case.
- The action of Trump's supporters described in (5) resulted in a wider spread of the virus.
- From (1) and (2) above, a wider Covid-19 spread equals more deaths from Covid-19.
- Conclusion: Trump's actions described in (4) caused more Covid-19 deaths than otherwise would have been the case.
Not a difficult argument to follow, but my Trump-supporting friend labeled it "lunacy". She said Trump saved millions of lives (!) by stopping flights from China in January (nevermind that the virus was already circulating in the U.S. at the time, the flight ban did not include U.S. citizens, and no reputable analysis supports the "millions" lie.) She also opined that the Republican Governor of Iowa had done an excellent job handling the Covid-19 outbreak there. (Pesky fact: Iowa currently has the highest rate of Covid-19 cases in the nation. There is no mask mandate, bars are open, and the Governor has required in-person school instruction.)
It was then I realized the futility of attempting rational discussion with a die-hard Trumper. I told my friend so I was done corresponding with her, and I finished with this:
Trump was right, he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue (a black man, presumably) and you would still support him.
This made my (ex-)friend and her fellow travelers upset and angry, and I admit it was harsh. But I started thinking: What would happen if Trump shot a black man on Fifth Avenue, right outside of Trump Tower? Something like this:
On September 15, Trump manages to give the slip to his Secret Service detail, takes a service elevator, and exits Trump Tower. As he begins walking down Fifth Avenue, he spots Marcus Amadi, a U.S. citizen whose mother came from Nigeria. Walking toward Amadi, Trump pulls out a Glock 19 pistol, which had been given to him by a supporter in the NYPD, and fires four shots. Two miss, but one hits Amadi in the chest, and he dies within minutes. Immediately after the shooting, Trump climbs into a limousine, which takes him into the Trump Tower garage. Five minutes later is is back in the offices of the Trump Organization.
To the surprise and scepticism of NYPD officers called to the scene, three witnesses state without reservation or hesitation that Trump was the shooter. Several others note the shooter resembled Trump, but are less certain. One witness, a retired security guard, says the shooter was not Trump.
In response to news reports of the shooting, Trump and the conservative media/propaganda machine start up their go-to strategy: denials and lies. Trump issues a tweet stating that he was meeting with Attorney General Bill Barr at the time of the shooting, and that the shooting report was just another example of the lying "enemy of the people" "human scum" media. The Trump-favored network OAN reports that many more (unnamed) witnesses have come forward to say that the shooter was clearly not Trump, but rather someone dressed up to look like Trump, but the NYPD will not believe them. Fox News reports that unnamed sources have evidence that operation was actually been planned by Antifa for months, which recruited a left-wing extremist Trump double to carry out the attack. On Fox, Sean Hannity mocks the notion that Trump could even fire a weapon, given his lack of firearms training, and attacks the backgrounds of the three witnesses who positively identified Trump (all of whom are registered Democrats, two are black, one is an immigrant). Tucker Carlson blames the Antifi plot for the shooting, castigates Joe Biden for using Mr. Amadi as a disposable prop, and goes on a riff about the Democrats' disdain for Black Americans. Later that evening, Russian cyberbots put a doctored video on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram, showing someone shaped like Trump, but clearly not Trump, shooting Amadi. The video is widely disseminated by Trump supporters amid howls of "lamestream" media bias against Trump. Fox interviews the NYPD witnesses who says the shooter wasn't Trump ("I don't know how anyone could think that"), and the interview is played on a loop. Later in the evening, Trump and Barr hold a short news conference in which Trump again says he was in his office at the time of the shooting. Barr supports this claim, although with jowls jiggling he adds that he did not look at his watch at exactly the moment the meeting started.
The lie/deny strategy satisfies roughly one-third of Trump's supporters. Trump and Barr's denials, the doctored video showing someone else doing the shooting, the one witness claiming it was not Trump, the attacks on the motives of the three witnesses who identified Trump, and ongoing reports that a left-wing operation was actually behind the shooting serve to allow this core group to believe that Trump was not the shooter, no matter what future evidence comes to light.
That evidence comes quickly. The next day, the NYPD releases two surveillance videos and one smartphone video showing Trump pulling the trigger on the Glock that killed Amadi. The quality of the videos is sufficient to support the statements of the three witnesses who identified Trump as the shooter. OAN reports that the videos are fakes, produced under the direction of Hillary Clinton at the Clinton Foundation, and paid for by George Soros. Fox News reports unnamed sources in the NYPD as saying the three videos were doctored "deep fakes". These reports circulate widely among conservative social media, and allow the third of Trump supporters who think someone else was the shooter continue to simply disbelieve the new videos.
To capture the remaining 70% of the base, Trump and the conservative media/propaganda machine move forward from the "lie/deny" strategy to the default fallback position in any white man's shooting of a black man: It was self-defense. Yes, Trump did fire the shot but only because he felt threatened by Mr. Amadi walking towards him on the sidewalk. Fox News publishes photos of Amadi posing in full gangsta mode, with rippling muscles, tatoos, and a dangerous don't-fuck-with-me look. People have a God-given constitutional right to defend themselves against this animal, don't they? (The photos were taken by a friend of Amadi's as a joke, but Fox doesn't report this fact.) Fox slows down the surveillance videos and its reporters breathlessly note that Amadi had a hand in one of his pockets as he was walking towards Trump. How could Trump know what was in there? Trump was justified in shooting before Amadi could pull out a gun.
The right-wing media assault on Amadi continues. OAN reports that Amadi's mother was a radical muslim in Nigeria before she came to the U.S., and that Amadi had made several suspicious trips to Nigeria, supposedly to visit "family." Fox News produces a video showing Amadi entering a mosque that is claimed to have connections to radical imams. The Russians produce a doctored video purporting to show Amadi with a gun in his hand as he walked toward Trump. This fake video circulates widely on conservative social media and becomes a key point in Trump's defense. Fox and conservative social media push the "if we can't defend ourselves, no one will be safe" narrative through posts, memes, and outraged comments. What would you do if this dangerous foreign Muslim black gangsta animal came walking towards you with his hand in his pocket, or with a gun? Trump will protect your right to shoot first! Trump will protect your family! Biden would let an army of Amadis into your suburbs, towns, and villages! Trump did what any rational American would do, he protected himself. He deserves praise, not jail!
As the NYPD continues its investigation of the killing of Mr. Amadi, the Trump administration takes steps to block it. Barr says no criminal investigation against a sitting President is allowed, and Fox News offers up numerous constitutional "scholars" who agree. Trump refuses to allow any member of his Administration to meet with NYPD investigators, and ignores subpoenas and search warrants issued by the Manhattan District Attorney, claiming absolutely Presidential Immunity. Trump promises, however, that the Bill Barr-lead Justice Department will conduct its own investigation of the shooting, in order to find Mr. Amadi's real killer and the leftists who plotted it, with the results expected in early 2021.
Despite this stonewalling, the Manhattan District Attorney issues an arrest warrant for Trump, believing the videos provide sufficient probable cause. But by this time, Trump has flown on Air Force One to Mar-a-Lago in Florida. The Manhattan DA attempts to obtain the extradition of Trump from Florida, but Florida's Republican Governor rails against the prosecution as politically motivated, and prohibits state officials from acting on the extradition request. The arrest warrant for Trump further agitates the conservative propaganda machine: The Manhattan DA is, after all, Cy Vance, Jr., the son of Jimmy Carter's Secretary of State. He's a Democrat trying to arrest your President for something he's not guilty of. The prosecution of Trump for Amadi's death is just a politically-motivated pre-election attack on your right to re-elect Trump.
The lack of any effective legal action against Trump following the death of Amadi at Trump's hands infuriates non-Trump Americans, especially Black Americans. Protests erupt everywhere. Trump, seeing increased violence as an asset to his re-election, orders Federal paramilitary troops into New York City, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and Chicago. This further inflames the situation, and rioting and violence become more intense. Trump, still claiming that he acted in self-defense in shooting Amadi, blames Biden and the radical left for the violence. The Trump campaign, conservative media, and Russian cyber actors push out a massive number of "this is the end of America" memes and messages, which Trump's supporters spread widely.
As protests and violence continue, Trump calls upon his paramilitary forces to secure city centers by any means necessary. Troops conduct an offensive, block-by-block campaign in Philadelphia to secure the area around Independence Hall, a focal point for protests. Armed resistance occurs, and sixty-seven people die, including nine federal troops, before the situation calms. Trump, right-wing social media, and Russian bots bombard the base with the message that Trump's re-election is the only thing that will stop mobs of leftist killers from rampaging throughout the country. The right hails Trump for winning the "Battle of Philadelphia" against (mostly Black) agitators; Biden would let them overrun the city, the state, the country. Fox and other conservative media effectively eliminate coverage of Trump's killing of Mr. Amadi, focusing instead on the protests, rioting, and violence.
Amid this turmoil, polls show that only five percent of Trump's base will no longer vote for him as a result of his shooting of Mr. Amadi on Fifth Avenue. Many Trump supporters continue to believe the shooting was a media hoax, and never happened, or that Amadi was killed in a left-wing plot designed to set up Trump. Those that believe Trump shot Amadi are convinced that Trump acted in self-defense -- we saw the (fake Russian) video of the gun in Amadi's hand, we saw how scary Amadi looked, we know he was a Muslim troublemaker. The rest of Trump's base are troubled by the shooting, but believe re-electing Trump is the only way to save the country from Joe Biden's anarchy. Yes, Trump may have killed someone, and that's bad, but maybe he was acting in self-defense, and Biden would be worse.
Conclusion: It's more than plausible that Trump could shoot a black man on Fifth Avenue and not lose support from his base. Such is the strength, creepiness, immorality, and danger of the Trump cult of personality, and the power of the right-wing propaganda machine, for which lying is second nature. I'm sad and sorry that my friend is caught up in it.